The Great Australian Catch-22

Property Edge

The Great Australian Catch-22

How to profit from a housing system that’s collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

They call it a housing crisis.

We call it a business model.

The Reserve Bank is sharpening the scissors. A rate cut is coming. Maybe two. Inflation is falling, growth is stalling, households are suffocating… and yet, property prices continue to rise.

Welcome to the great Australian Catch-22.

Rates need to fall because everything’s breaking.

But rates can’t fall—because house prices are still rising.

The economy needs air. But if the RBA opens the window, the housing market catches fire.

And yet, if they don’t? The rest of the economy chokes.

Either way, the system loses. Unless, of course, you know how to play it.

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Back to the newsletter….

The Housing Market is Broken. Beautifully.

We now have the most unaffordable housing in Australian history.

Don’t take our word for it—take theirs.

Mortgage repayments now swallow over 50% of the median household’s income.
Median rents chew up 33% of pay packets, with record-low vacancy rates.
And despite all this pressure, values are still climbing in Sydney, Melbourne, and the “safe haven” corridors of Brisbane and Perth.

The nation is broke. But the land under it is getting more expensive.

How? Simple.

Supply Choked. Demand Turbocharged.

In 2023–24, Australia added over 446,000 new people via net migration.

Yet new housing starts are down 25%. Planning approvals are glacial. Builders are going bust. Councils are tangled in red tape. And the government? They’ve got a five-year plan. Five years. For people who need housing now.

Even the RBA’s own economists are quietly suggesting that supply-side dysfunction is immune to monetary policy. You can’t cut rates and magically conjure tradies or land.

But rate cuts are still coming—because that’s all they’ve got.

Meanwhile in Canberra…

Julie Collins gets a Cabinet upgrade.

There’s a shiny new National Housing Council.

And we’re told a “whole-of-government” approach is coming.

Meanwhile, the Housing Australia Future Fund is sitting on $10 billion but still hasn’t built a single home. But don’t worry—they’ve committed to building 1.2 million homes in five years. That’s about 200,000 per year. We’ve never hit that. And we’re already behind.

This isn’t planning.

This is optics.

So What’s Left?

You can wait for the system to fix itself.

Or you can realise that the system isn’t designed to be fixed.

Because it works just fine for the people it was built for:

Land bankers.
Institutions.
Bureaucrats.
Politicians juggling migration, inflation, and tax receipts.

But if you’re a property entrepreneur—a flipper, a subdivider, a builder, a renovator—then you don’t have to play by their rules. You can build your own edge.

This Is the Moment

This housing “crisis” is not your enemy—it’s your signal.

You don’t need the market to rise.

You don’t need interest rates to fall.

You need deals with upside—and a way to act faster than the planners, the politicians, and the panic.

That’s your moat.

They run reports. You run numbers.

They forecast. You flip.

They delay. You deliver.

This is not just a market. It’s a void—begging to be filled.

And the flippers, builders, and visionaries who move now will do more than make a profit.

They’ll solve the problem the government keeps pretending to fix.