Spring always brings a certain optimism — like opening day at the races. Everyone’s dressed up, scanning the form guide, convinced this is their season.

But the real money isn’t made in the parade ring. It’s made in the back rooms, weeks before, when the smart players have already placed their bets.

This week’s numbers tell us who’s already moving — and who’s still getting their shoes shined.

1) Spring turns up. Stock doesn’t.

The petals are out. The “For Sale” boards? Less so. An LJ Hooker sweep says fresh listings sit 6.3% below the 10-year average; Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane show the biggest multi-year declines. The result: buyers competing for fewer homes, even as borrowing capacity improves after rate cuts. The irony is rich: many vendors are waiting for more cuts — and could miss the best window by waiting with everyone else.

Insider move: List or launch before the crowd piles in; or buy now while rivals wait for October. The best deals are struck when everyone else is still reading the RBA tea leaves.

2) A new demand shock is pre-loaded for Oct 1

The government’s Home Guarantee Scheme expansion hits 1 October. Caps jump sharply (e.g., Sydney/NSW capital city from $900k → $1.5m; QLD capitals $700k → $1.0m; WA capital $600k → $850k). A Cotality analysis suggests FHBs’ access jumps from about one-third of markets to ~63% (houses ~52%, units ~94%). Demand-side rocket fuel, on schedule.

Insider move: Pre-stage stock and presales in the new cap bands; target unit/townhouse stock that suddenly qualifies. Price to the cap (not above it) and let competition do the rest.

3) Insurance: the expense line everyone forgot

While rates eased, home & contents premiums jumped ~14% nationally in a year (+18% NSW; +17% VIC/SA/TAS; +16% QLD; +9% WA). The worst bills? NT averages ~$4,814; North QLD ~$4,624. Drivers: extreme weather, rebuild costs, reinsurance. Some households will downgrade cover or lapse altogether — which matters when you’re underwriting flips or holds.

Insider move: (i) Adjust feasibilities: add an insurance stress line by postcode; (ii) favour low-hazard micro-pockets (elevation, drainage, newer codes); (iii) for strata plays, interrogate the sinking fund and building risk report before you fall in love with the yield.

4) The spectacle: $11.6 trillion and counting

ABS says the total dwelling stock value hit $11.6T in June (up $213B from March) — roughly five times annual GDP. Investor lending grew faster than OO lending through Q2, and brokers expect another wave once the FHB changes land. A “wealth effect” for some, a higher reserve price for others. Either way, it’s liquidity you can sell into.

Insider move: List renovated stock into the liquidity; secure sites where investor competition is about to return (inner-ring units, townhouse sites near rail).

5) Policy theatre: the RBA’s property blind spot

Former RBA deputy Stephen Grenville notes the bank has never really known what to do about asset prices (property included) under inflation targeting. Translation: don’t expect surgical tools for housing — we’ll keep getting rate tweaks to target CPI, while housing runs on separate rails (migration, supply, planning, incentives). That mismatch is half the opportunity.

Insider move: Assume policy won’t fix supply; build your own edge with DA-savvy designs, prefab time savings, and price-to-cap product for October’s FHB cohort.

Meanwhile… (three fast beats for your war-room)

• Spring squeeze, confirmed: capitals running 70%+ clearance on tighter stock; LJ Hooker warns sellers waiting for more cuts may “get lost in the crowd” later. Sell early or buy while the aisle is clear.
• Forecast drums beat on: agency research puts Melbourne back to growth (albeit modest) with higher gains across Sydney/Brisbane into 2026 — a hint to reload reno inventory in laggards.
• Boomer downsizing won’t save you: in-home care trends keep more seniors in place longer; downsizer stock drip-feeds, it doesn’t flood. Less relief on listings than the headline optimists promise.

The Insider’s Table (clip-and-keep)

The Quiet Conclusion

Spring is not “more of everything.” It’s less stock, more buyers, higher insurance, and a scheduled demand jolt in three weeks. The herd will wait for the announcement; we price for it now. The bureaucracy will talk about “targets”; we build product that actually settles.

When policy points one way and incentives push another, mispricing blooms. That’s our patch.

By the time the starter’s bell rings in October, the crowd will be charging into the ring, chasing the same handful of listings under the new caps. They’ll find higher insurance bills, slimmer pickings, and investors who already staked their claim.

We’ll be the ones watching from the members’ stand, contracts in hand, ready to collect.

Because in this game, you don’t wait for the race to start — you make sure you’ve already won it.

Regards,

The Property Edge Team