Cold Feet, Warm Profits?

So… which is it?

• Are properties sitting on the market, unsold and unloved?
• Or are prices about to soar to record highs with sellers swimming in cash?

Because both headlines ran this week:

• “Why more properties are sitting on the market” – SMH
• “Property prices to hit record highs in 2026” – ABC

That’s not analysis. That’s a schizophrenic market — or more accurately, a schizophrenic media cycle.

And if you don’t know how to read between the lines, you’ll get caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Two Headlines, One Truth

Here’s how both can be true at the same time:

1. Listings are stalling because buyers are cautious, and sellers are still drunk on 2021 price tags.
2. Prices are rising in select pockets (think tightly held, blue-chip, no-supply zones) where demand is sticky and sentiment hasn’t cracked.

The media conflates spotlight sales with market momentum. But smart operators like us know:

“The market” doesn’t move as one herd — it’s a zoo. And the lions eat first.

Our Take

This isn’t a boom or a bust. It’s a shakeout.

• Weak buyers? Gone.
• Greedy sellers? Exposed.
• Smart flippers and value-add developers? Primed.

There’s blood in the water — but also opportunity. And if you’re one of the few who can create value (not just ride it), you’re about to get very busy.

Your Edge

Don’t listen to the headlines. Watch the mechanics:

• Days on market
• Discounting trends
• Vendor motivation
• Lending behaviour
• Real margin, not theoretical capital growth

And remember: In every cycle, the media plays catch-up. But real money is made by those who get ahead of the story.

So — are you watching… or playing?

The Hungry Herd: What First-Home Buyers Just Told Us

You want to know where the real opportunity is in this market?

Don’t look at the headlines.

Look at the hustlers with pre-approvals — and where they’re voting with their feet.

According to realestatedotcomdotau, first-home buyers are snapping up more than 50% of properties in specific outer-ring suburbs.

This is more than a curiosity.

It’s a target-rich environment for flippers and value-add investors.

Why?

First-home buyers are emotional. They’re aspirational. They stretch every dollar.

And they don’t want a headache — they want a storybook ending:

Fresh kitchen

New floors

Second bathroom

White picket fence (optional but recommended)

They’re not chasing yield.

They’re not comparing square metre rates.

They just want to own something that feels like home.

Your job?

Give the hungry market exactly what it wants.

Flip Strategy: Made to Order

Here’s the angle no one’s talking about — the end buyer. If you’re flipping, building, or subdividing to sell, you’re not just selling property — you’re feeding a hungry buyer market. The key? Know who’s starving.

Who’s Buying What (and Where)

Apparently,  this is not a one size fits all market. Let’s break it down:

Victoria (FHBs love old homes)

• 37.6% of established home sales went to first home buyers
• Just 23.8% of new builds went to them
• Lesson? Don’t assume new = appealing. In VIC, renovated charm sells.

NSW (FHB investors emerging)

• 15.6% of new home sales and 10.3% of established home sales were first-time investors
• That’s right — first-time buyers are also landlords
• Lesson? You’re not just marketing to owner-occupiers anymore. Think about dual income, granny flats, yield.

QLD, SA, WA (supply squeeze = new builds win)

• FHBs are more active in the new housing market
• Scarcity is pushing them to build
• Lesson? In these states, land subdivisions and house & land packages are king.

What This Means for You (and Your Next Flip)

If you want to bank the profit not just talk the dream, build the deal backwards. Start with the buyer profile. Then work out what stock they’re snapping up. That’s your play.

For example:

• VIC? Find an unrenovated weatherboard in an FHB suburb and give it a budget makeover.
• QLD? Source splitter blocks or work back from builders hungry for shovel-ready sites.
• NSW? Position deals for yield and dual occupancy — these new investors are number-driven.

Don’t fall for generic plays. Flip with a bullseye on your buyer.

One Last Thought:

Most flippers obsess over the purchase. But the real game is the exit. If you know who’s buying, what they want, and where they’re buying — the rest is just math and momentum

• Buy ugly in good streets near the action (station, school, Aldi)
• Keep reno cosmetic — the dream is in the paint, not the plumbing
• Style to sell, not to your own taste. (Remember, they love neutral tones, not your Pinterest mood board.)
• Build urgency with your agent. First-home buyers aren’t jaded yet. Scarcity sells.

This isn’t rocket science. It’s reading the room.

Final Thought

The opportunity isn’t in chasing capital growth. It’s in manufacturing desirability — on streets where FHBs are lining up with bank letters in hand.

So pick your end buyer before you pick your project.

And then serve them exactly what they didn’t know they needed.

Until next week,

Stay sharp. Stay cynical. Stay profitable.

— Property Lovers

Deal Maker AI – Special Offer Closing Soon!

Your 180-day fast track to property deals — powered by AI.

Get hands-on support, smart tools, and proven templates to find, analyse, and offer like a pro.

• – Full platform access for 180 days
• – 6 AI tools built for serious investors
• – Templates, renders, feasos & CRM — done with you
• – Money-back guarantee if you don’t land a deal

Not DIY.

Not done-for-you.

This is a new way to invest — together.

Deal Maker AI is here. Special offer ends on Sunday 22nd June 2025. Click here to watch how it works.